#its been two days and this is the worst disaster we had since the 98 earthquake in Marmara i think

[saifuckr]

i keep looking for a post about turkey earthquake on my dash and there's nothing yet so I guess ill make it myself the earthquake in the southeastern anatolia region has taken confirmed 30 000+ lives already and we still have lots of people under the wreckage, the roads are eighter snowed in or destroyed and help convoys are stuck, people are struggling to reach their loved ones and we really really need help, if you can:

AHBAB: trustworthy philanthropy organization, theyre one of the leading organizations in the help effort

a number of international organizations have also started help campaigns including oxfam and uossm. anything really helps (1USD = 18TL, 1EUR = 20TL) even if you cant donate it would be appreciated if you can spread the word.

[satelliteinasupernova]

For the trope mashup: 53 + 98, bughead

Mutual Pining/Curses

It was often said that hubris was a Sorcerer’s greatest enemy. From Jughead’s current position, bleeding out on the stone floor of the Serpent’s den, he was pretty certain his greatest enemy went by another name, Penny Peabody.

His plan to run her out of the Serpent’s circle had failed disastrously. At the last minute, just as he had nearly completed the banishment spell, she had cut into him with her own magic. Overwhelmed by searing pain, he had toppled to the ground, his body limp and numb. Now he could only watch as she drew a magic circle around his body, the lines painted with his own blood. 

Blood magic had long been banned from the academy, so he couldn't recognize the spell she was casting. But whatever it was, it was going to be nasty.

When Penny stepped out in front of him, he could see that her mouth was split into a wide, mocking grin. His stomach churned with panic.

“Too bad, kid. I guess I could’a just banished you, just like you wanted to banish me. But honestly, it’ll be a lot more fun to watch despair in your own misery.” With a flick of her wrist, she lit a match, and threw it into the magic circle. The lines of blood surrounding him erupted in ghostly flame.

“I curse you,” she said, with a frenzied sort of joy, “to ruin everything you touch.” As she took a few steps back, Penny was still smiling. “I curse you to a life of misery.”

……

It was the early hours of the morning when Jughead managed to pull himself off the Serpents’ floor and start to painfully make his way through the woods back to the academy. 

He shared a room with Archie, a young paladin in training, who, luckily for Jughead, typically slept like the dead. When Jughead finally made it to his bed, he was weary all the way down to his bones. He collapsed face first onto his pillow and didn’t wake up for three days.

…..

The curse settled into him like an invisible second skeleton attached at the base of his spine. He could almost feel it move around him of its own accord, lashing out at his surroundings without warning. A week into the curse, Jughead had gone to replenish his vial of Frankincense during potions class, and all three shelves had come loose from the wall and collided into the floor in a dramatic crash.

During his free time, he had begun secluding himself as much as possible in one of the unfurnished watchtowers above the library. He told anyone who asked that he was busy with research, which, strictly speaking, was true. Jughead was scouring the library’s resources for anything that might give any clue to how to cleanse a blood curse. So far, he had found nothing.

……

“Jughead.” Betty had found him in his secluded corner, which didn’t exactly surprise him. Unfortunately, it did mean he would need to find another hiding spot as soon as possible. “You said you were going to join us for stargazing this month. Where were you last night?”

He had agreed to that, several weeks ago, back when he’d thought he’d be rid of Penny and his problems would be officially behind him.

Betty was a student of the very small and experimental Magitech department within the academy. Their paths likely would have never crossed if not for the fact that they shared a few friends from other departments. Betty was the kind of person who took an interest in all of her friends’ pursuits with an equal amount of enthusiasm and consideration, and within a very short time, Jughead had found himself completely enamored with her.

But, well, that was before hubris had gotten the better of him.

Jughead looked down at the book in front of him and feigned disinterest. “I was busy.”

“Busy… researching.” Her voice was thoughtful, but there was a bitter edge of disbelief in her words. Jughead didn’t dare to look up to read her expression.

“Yes,” he replied, curtly.

For a full minute, she stood on the other side of his desk without making any motion to leave.

“Can I help you with something?” he asked dismissively. The words felt like cold shards of ice, painfully scraping against the back of his throat. 

“No, I suppose not,” she said with a sigh, and quietly left the room. As soon as she was gone, Jughead looked up. The room felt so much emptier than it had only minutes before. With a breath, Jughead dried his eyes with the back of his hand and turned back to his book miserably.

…..

After that, Jughead had no trouble keeping to himself. The curse was still a problem, but more of an inconvenient one than one of full on disaster. When he was secluded, the curse was mostly limited to clumsy mishaps, like spilled ink and faulty spells. However, the one time he had given in to Archie’s requests to join him in the mess hall, a glass bowl had broken into pieces and sliced Archie’s hand open.

The library’s resources had provided him with no answers. He would need to find another alternative to getting the information he needed. To ask the Serpents for help would mean telling them what he had tried to do to one of their own, and that would easily get him kicked from the circle. To be removed from them would greatly weaken his magic abilities at the time that he needed them the most. 

No one from the circle had come for him since the night he was cursed. It seemed that Polly hadn’t told them what he had done. It was likely that she was more interested in getting to watch him suffer from the side lines, and was just waiting for the right moment to add the final blow to his misery.

His friends at the academy had mostly stopped approaching him. Sometimes he could feel their watching eyes in class or in the mess hall, but mostly, they let him be.

It hurt a little, that his friendships had fallen away so easily, but, he reminded himself, he had never had much to offer their group from the beginning. They would do fine without them, and in the meantime, he would figure out his own situation on his own.

He was two months into his self-mandated seclusion when he found Betty waiting for him at the bottom of the stairs below his study area.

“Betty,” he said in a breath. He had barely seen her in weeks, he didn’t dare to even look her way when they happened to pass in the halls. “What are you doing here?”

Betty walked up to him, peering up to look at his face. She looked tired. There were dark shadows under her eyes, and her hair was tied back messily behind her head. “It’s been a rough two months,” she said, “but everything will be okay. I just need you to trust me.”

He wanted to ask what she meant, but before he could speak, Betty had plunged a dagger into his side. A painful spark ran along his spine, and he blacked out instantly.

When he woke up, the situation he found himself in was uncomfortably familiar. He was laying across the concrete floor of the Magitech classroom, the lines of a magic circle drawn around him. The section in his side where Betty had stabbed him ached painfully, but when he ran his hand over it, he found no wound. His body was heavy, but he could move around just enough to see that he was in the company of Betty and their mutual friends. Archie, Veronica, Josie, Kevin, and even Cheryl were all standing in a circle around him, with Betty at the head, holding the charm together in a silent chant.

“Hang in there, bud,” Archie said, almost cheerfully, despite the fact that he was dripping blood from the palm of his hand down onto the magic circle below him.

“What’s-” as he tried to speak, Jughead shifted to try to sit up.

“Don’t you dare move,” Cheryl ordered. “You’ll mess everything up, and it was a pain to get this right.”

He leaned back on the ground, it was easier than sitting up anyway. “What are you doing?”

“Blood magic,” Josie answered. “Did you forget Betty’s mom was a blood mage back in the day?”

“It’s one of the worst kept secrets in the academy,” Kevin added, gleefully.

“Everyone hush,” Veronica added, “We need to concentrate.”

After a breath, they all began chanting in unison, and the lines of the magic circle ignited in flames. A strange warmth filled the air. Jughead could feel it sinking into him, settling into his chest, his bones, his spine. The heat ran up his shoulders, slowly burning away the heavy weight of the curse from his body.

As the heat died down, Jughead found himself leaning forward on his knees, taking deep, heaving breaths. “What did you do?” he asked, in between gasps.

Betty stepped into the circle and knelt down beside him. “We’ve made a new coven. Linked by our blood. As long as we are together, no blood curse can harm you.” Softly she reached up to touch his cheek. “We’ve missed you, Jughead. Welcome back.”

[newstfionline]

Wednesday, February 10, 2021

Pope Francis says the world is ‘seriously ill’ from the consequences of the pandemic (Washington Post) Pope Francis on Monday offered a grim assessment of humanity’s response to the pandemic in a lengthy speech that highlighted aspects big and small from a year of isolation and “despair.” He talked about domestic violence in homes under pandemic lockdown. He emphasized the job losses predominantly among off-the-books workers, with no safety net on which to rely. He described a generation of children, alone and in front of their computers, enduring the “educational catastrophe” of school shutdowns or distance learning. The world, Francis said, “is seriously ill.” “Not only as a result of the virus,” the pope continued, “but also in its natural environment, its economic and political processes, and even more in its human relationships.” “The pandemic shed light on the risks and consequences inherent in a way of life dominated by selfishness and a culture of waste, and it set before us a choice: either to continue on the road we have followed until now, or to set out on a new path,” Francis said.

Nothing to sneeze at: Global warming triggers earlier pollen (AP) When Dr. Stanley Fineman started as an allergist in Atlanta, he told patients they should start taking their medications and prepare for the drippy, sneezy onslaught of pollen season around St. Patrick’s Day. That was about 40 years ago. Now he tells them to start around St. Valentine’s Day. Across the United States and Canada, pollen season is starting 20 days earlier and pollen loads are 21% higher since 1990 and a huge chunk of that is because of global warming, a new study found in Monday’s journal the Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences. While other studies have shown North America’s allergy season getting longer and worse, this is the most comprehensive data with 60 reporting stations.

Divided Senate votes to proceed with impeachment trial of Trump (Washington Post) A divided Senate voted 56 to 44 on Tuesday to proceed with the impeachment trial of former president Donald Trump, rejecting his lawyers’ argument that it is unconstitutional. Most Republicans stood with Trump and his legal team, which contended the Senate cannot convict a person no longer in office. The House impeachment managers, in pressing for the trial to proceed, said Trump had a role in inciting the deadly Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol and should be held accountable. Opening arguments in the trial are set to begin Wednesday.

Sheriff: Hacker tried to taint Florida city’s water with lye (AP) A hacker gained unauthorized entry to the system controlling the water treatment plant of a Florida city of 15,000 and tried to taint the water supply with a caustic chemical, exposing a danger cybersecurity experts say has grown as systems become both more computerized and accessible via the internet. The hacker who breached the system at the city of Oldsmar’s water treatment plant on Friday using a remote access program shared by plant workers briefly increased the amount of sodium hydroxide by a factor of one hundred (from 100 parts per million to 11,100 parts per million), Pinellas County Sheriff Bob Gualtieri said during a news conference Monday. Sodium hydroxide, also called lye, is used to treat water acidity but the compound is also found in cleaning supplies such as soaps and drain cleaners. It can cause irritation, burns and other complications in larger quantities. Fortunately, a supervisor saw the chemical being tampered with—as a mouse controlled by the intruder moved across the screen changing settings—and was able to intervene and immediately reverse it, Gualtieri said. Oldsmar officials have since disabled the remote-access system, and say other safeguards were in place to prevent the increased chemical from getting into the water.

Mexican Census: Evangelicals at New High, Catholics at New Low (Christianity Today) The Catholic majority in Mexico is slipping, as Protestants surpassed 10 percent of the population in the country for the first time ever. According to recently released data from Mexico’s 2020 census, the Protestant/evangelical movement increased from 7.5 percent in 2010 to 11.2 percent last year. The Catholic Church has historically dominated the religious landscape across Latin America, but especially in Mexico, which ranks among the most heavily Catholic countries in the region. Today, though an overwhelming majority of Mexicans still identify as Catholic, declines are accelerating. It took 50 years—from 1950 to 2000—for the proportion of Catholics in Mexico to drop from 98 percent to 88 percent. Now, only two decades later, that percentage has slipped another 10 points to 77.7 percent.

Venezuela’s exodus (Foreign Policy) Colombia is to grant temporary legal status to the more than 1.7 million Venezuelans who have taken refuge in the country. Under the terms announced by Colombian President Iván Duque on Monday, Venezuelans who entered Colombia without permission before Jan. 31 will be eligible for legal protections, making it easier for them to live and work in the country. Roughly 5.4 million people have left Venezuela in recent years, according to U.N. estimates.

EU countries expel Russian diplomats in Navalny dispute (AP) Germany, Poland and Sweden on Monday each declared a Russian diplomat in their country “persona non grata,” retaliating in kind to last week’s decision by Moscow to expel diplomats from the three European Union countries over the case of opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Russia had accused diplomats from Sweden, Poland and Germany of attending a demonstration in support of Navalny, President Vladimir Putin’s most high-profile political foe. In a statement, EU lawmakers also appealed to “all EU Member States to show maximum solidarity with Germany, Poland and Sweden and take all appropriate steps to show the cohesiveness and strength of our Union.”

Rescuers look for survivors of Indian glacier flood disaster (AP) Hundreds of rescue workers were scouring muck-filled ravines and valleys in northern India on Tuesday looking for survivors after part of a Himalayan glacier broke off, unleashing a devastating flood that has left at least 31 people dead and 165 missing. One of the rescue efforts is focused on a tunnel at a hydroelectric power plant where more than three dozen workers have been out of contact since the flood occurred Sunday. Rescuers used machine excavators and shovels to clear sludge from the tunnel overnight in an attempt to reach the workers as hopes for their survival faded. The disaster was set off when part of a glacier on Nanda Devi mountain snapped off Sunday morning. The floodwater, mud and boulders roared down the mountain along the Alaknanda and Dhauliganga rivers, breaking dams, sweeping away bridges and forcing the evacuation of many villages while turning the countryside into what looked like an ash-colored moonscape.

Cooped up in the pandemic, Chinese couples were not in the mood for love (Washington Post) When Chinese families were ordered to stay at home last year amid the coronavirus outbreak, authorities hoped for a much-needed baby boom. It turns out that few couples were in the mood. New data this week showed that birthrates in the country continued to plummet, with 10.04 million births registered in 2020, a 15 percent drop from the year before, according to the Ministry of Public Security. Although not the official birthrate, the latest figure was a third lower than the number of births recorded in 2019—already the country’s lowest since the early 1960s, when China was in the middle of a famine. China has been working to reverse falling birthrates caused in part by decades of population controls. After the country relaxed its infamous one-child policy in 2016, allowing couples to have two children, initiatives have ranged from the supportive to the punitive. Policymakers face a demographic crisis that could cause the country’s population to start to shrink as early as 2027, according to a worst-case estimate from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Official 2020 population data is expected to be released later this month, but in January some local governments published birth data showing declines as steep as 30 percent.

Myanmar police fire into air to disperse protest, four hurt by rubber bullets (Reuters) Police fired gunshots into the air and used water cannon and rubber bullets on Tuesday as protesters across Myanmar defied bans on big gatherings to oppose a military coup that halted a tentative transition to democracy. Four people were hurt by rubber bullets in the capital Naypyitaw, and one of them, a woman, was in critical condition with a head wound, a doctor said. The Feb. 1 coup and detention of elected civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi has brought the largest demonstrations in more than a decade and a growing civil disobedience movement affecting hospitals, schools and government offices.

Fish Farm (Hakai Magazine) A new fish farm in Singapore will produce up to 3,000 tonnes of grouper, trout and shrimp annually. This fish farm is notable primarily because of its location, which is an eight-story indoor aquaculture facility being constructed in the city-state. Singapore imports 90 percent of its food, and would prefer to scale that back a bit, with the national goal of producing 30 percent of its nutritional needs locally by 2030. If all goes according to plan, the new facility’s efficiency will be six times higher than that of other fish farms in Singapore.

Anger grows at Israel’s ultra-Orthodox virus scofflaws, threatening rupture with secular Jews (Washington Post) The Shinfelds, an ultra-Orthodox Jewish family in this most religious of cities, are used to being a bit at odds with the rest of Israel. Their community’s tradition of large families—the couple has 10 children and 30 grandchildren—strict observance and exemption from military service have long created friction with the more secular majority. But they say they have never felt hostility like they do now, as a pandemic-exhausted nation has turned its rage at ultra-Orthodox scofflaws. As Israel endures its third national lockdown, social media has been inflamed by images of black-clad men brazenly crowding schools, weddings and other events, including 20,000 at a recent Jerusalem funeral of a leading rabbi. Secular critics have cast the ultra-Orthodox, fairly or not, as superspreaders supreme. “Now it’s not only tense—it feels like hatred,” said Vivian Shinfeld, 60, of the anger she feels even from some less-religious members of her own family. The backlash could have cultural and political impacts well after the pandemic ends. “There has been a schism growing for a while, and the pandemic is making it wider,” said Tamar El-Or, an anthropology professor at Hebrew University and longtime scholar of ultra-Orthodox culture. “When this virus is gone, nothing is going to be same.”

Ethnic clashes in Darfur could reignite Sudan’s old conflict (AP) Sayid Ismael Baraka, a Sudanese-American visiting from Atlanta, was playing with his three children, and his wife was making tea, when the gunmen stormed into his family village in Sudan’s Darfur region. The gunmen went through the village of Jabal, shooting people. The 36-year-old Baraka was shot to death as he rushed to help a wounded neighbor, his wife and brother said. The attack on Jan. 16 left more than two dozen dead in and around the village. They were among 470 people killed in a days-long explosion of violence between Arab and non-Arab tribes last month in Darfur. The bloodletting stoked fears that Darfur, scene of a vicious war in the 2000s, could slide back into conflict and raised questions over the government’s efforts to implement a peace deal and protect civilians.

Try a ‘Shultz hour’ (NYT) When George Shultz—who died Saturday at 100—was secretary of state under Ronald Reagan in the 1980s, he developed a weekly ritual. He closed the door to his office and sat down with a pen and a pad of paper. For the next hour, Shultz tried to clear his mind and think about big ideas, rather than the minutiae of government work. Only two people could interrupt him, he told his secretary: “My wife or the president.” That’s even more useful advice today than it was four decades ago. These days, we are constantly interrupted by minutiae, via alerts and text messages. They can make it impossible to carve out time to think through difficult problems in new ways or come up with creative ideas. Letting your mind wander, Sandi Mann, a British psychologist, has said, “makes us more creative, better at problem-solving, better at coming up with creative ideas.” The Dutch have a word for this concept: niksen, or the art of doing nothing. As Amos Tversky, a path-breaking psychologist, said, “You waste years by not being able to waste hours.”

[valuentumbrian]

ALERT: Bull Raids, Short Squeezes and Highly Unusual Market Activity

We are putting short investors on high alert!

By Brian Nelson, CFA

In late 2018, Valuentum published Value Trap, a book that warned to all that would heed its warning that a collapse in the traditional quant value factor was coming and that excessive volatility in the markets caused by price-agnostic trading--or those that aren’t paying attention to fair value estimate calculations--would only build and build to eventually reach extreme and irrational levels. The book, while hugely successful winning award after award, was largely ignored by the media, despite our best efforts to get the word out. Now, the chickens are coming home to roost.

Image Shown: The book Value Trap warned about the impending collapse of the value factor, and during 2020, the value factor registered its worst performance in history. We continue to believe large cap growth is underpriced. Image Source: Bloomberg.

As you are aware (and probably tired of hearing by now), the “value factor” had its worst showing in history during 2020, as predicted, and while broader market indices continue to reflect somewhat reasonable levels of volatility (following the excessive levels during the COVID-19 crash), we’re now starting to see the type of volatility on individual names that we think will only grow in number to eventually become large enough to impact broader market indices in time. Our “Call to Action” in Value Trap remains, and we encourage regulators to promote the application of active management (and enterprise valuation) via policy regulations that limit dangerous vehicles in a bid to ensure market integrity and stability for posterity. Indexing is a wolf in sheep’s clothing, and its bite will leave deep scars in the financial system if not curbed.

To the layman, if you’re a believer in climate change and how this generation is harming the future, it’s far worse what is happening in finance today. Pollution is everywhere. With just ~10% of all trading based on discretionary fundamental fair value analysis, with indexing and quant trading increasing (momentum and trend following algorithms), with mis-education at all-time highs given the documented failures of perceived “truths” in quant finance, future generations may be left with a complete and absolute mess of a financial and market system if we don’t get back to enterprise valuation. Instructors: Teach your students well – teach them enterprise valuation. Make Value Trap required reading.

Gordon Gekko is wrong: Greed is not good. Brokers selling index funds pointing to failed modern portfolio theory as justification and quants running sophisticated algorithms based on short-cut multiple analysis and impractical data will only grow to be a recipe for disaster. Were it not for the swift action of the Fed/Treasury during the depths of the COVID-19 crisis, the financial system would have already witnessed its doom. Many stocks in indexes would have gone to zero, driving underperformance of traditional indexes relative to active management of mammoth proportions, all but securing the demise of Bogle’s folly. Far too many investors are not paying attention to the intrinsic worth of their assets--and counting on the Fed/Treasury to bail out indexers (not active managers) time and time again with tax-payer money is no plan for longevity. Indexing is not free or inexpensive; it has cost the tax payers hundreds of billions, maybe trillions.

We witnessed but a glimpse of irrational market activity and extreme levels of volatility earlier this year. On March 25, 2020, the SEC halted trading in shares of Zoom Technologies (ZOOM) because many were confusing its ticker symbol with a similarly named NASDAQ-listed company, Zoom Video Communications (ZM). More recently, a January 7th tweet by Tesla CEO Elon Musk saying nothing more than “Use Signal” sent shares of the stock Signal Advance (SIGL) over 400%+ higher. The only problem is that Musk was talking about a messaging app called Signal that rivals Facebook’s (FB) Messenger and Apple’s (AAPL) messaging service, not the company listed under the ticker SIGL. Traders may have been engaging in pump-and-dump schemes using misinformation as the tool, as Signal Advance now trades for ~$5.50, down from its irrational high of ~$38 per share.

Image Shown: Shares of Signal Advance (SIGL), a company that uses signal technologies in biomedicine and other areas, shot up aggressively on a tweet from Elon Musk saying to use a completely unrelated messaging app called Signal. Image Source: Yahoo, Twitter.

These are not one-off events. In the early months of 2020, irrational speculation also reached a precipice in the stocks of bankrupt and near-bankrupt companies, as speculators in the popular Robinhood app whipsawed prices of Hertz (HTZ), Whiting Petroleum (WLL), GNC (GNC), and Chesapeake Energy (CHKAQ) around. On June 8, 2020, for example, Hertz’s and Whiting Petroleum’s shares, while still lower significantly on the year, closed approximately 10-fold higher from prices around the time of their respective bankruptcy filings during this mania.

Then there was Hong-Kong listed ArtGo Holdings. The marble-stone miner’s share price ran up 3,800%, nearly 40-fold, during 2019, with the majority coming on news that MSCI would add the stock to its suite of indexes. However, just a couple weeks after the announcement, on November 21, 2019, MSCI pulled a U-turn, saying it would not add the stock to its indexes. The news sent shares of ArtGo Holdings tumbling 98% that Thursday morning, wiping clean an incredible $5.7 billion of market value. The markets are showing signs that the price-discovery mechanism is breaking down, and indexing is not an innocent bystander.

Image Shown: Shares of GameStop have been on an irrationally wild ride recently driven by what looks to have been an orchestrated and highly unethical (and perhaps illegal) short squeeze on the stock. According to some reports, during the pre-market session January 25, GameStop’s shares were up ~80%, and turned red during the trading session, with no fundamental news.

Recent “bull raids,” or aggressive and orchestrated “short squeezes” on stocks, have been the most prominent evidence of excessive volatility and irrational market behavior driven by Reddit WallStreetBets users and Robinhood traders, only exacerbated by price-agnostic trading from traditional quant algorithms. With a short interest of ~150%, GameStop’s (GME) shares, for example, went from a 52-week low of $2.57 in March 2020 to a 52-week high of $159.18 in January, and are now trading at ~$70-$80 per share at the time of this writing--still far above what may be considered to be a fair value estimate of the equity.

There are other instances, too. Other heavily shorted stocks including Express (EXPR), Macerich (MAC), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), and AMC Entertainment (AMC) have been tools of trading madness in recent weeks. At the time of this writing, Express’ shares are up over 90%, Macerich’s are up 16%, Bed Bath & Beyond are up over 8%, and AMC’s are up over 28% -- all on no news other than they are companies with heavy short interest. As with the “fad” of investing in bankrupt companies earlier in 2020, it seems like the trading sharks are circling heavily-shorted names to drive aggressive short-squeezes, often in conjunction with the application of deep out of the money call options.

We’re paying close attention to these dynamics as we monitor our short idea considerations in the Exclusive publication. We’ve put up some tremendous success rates when it comes to short ideas—through October 2020, the success rate for short idea considerations was 92.3% over 52 ideas spanning 52 months--but we’re writing today in part to put our readers on high alert when it comes to short investing. Though we still like our latest two short idea considerations, DoorDash (DASH) and Palantir (PLTR), they have moved against us since we highlighted them. Palantir was up 25% on nothing more than news of a Demo Day. Our thesis on these ideas hasn’t changed, but the market’s behavior certainly has. For short investors, caution is the order of today.

Concluding Thoughts    

We believe a fair value estimate on the S&P 500 (SPY) is 3,530-3,920, and with the S&P 500 trading at ~3,825 at the time of this writing, the markets are fairly valued based on common-sense metrics. You can read about how we value the market in our 2020 recap here. We maintain our view that the areas of big cap tech, large cap growth, and the NASDAQ are attractive, and we continue to point to Facebook (FB) and Alphabet (GOOG) as two of the most undervalued stocks on the market. Large cap growth (SCHG) has outperformed small cap value (IWN) roughly 60 percentage points since the beginning of 2019, or about the time that Value Trap was published. Best Ideas Newsletter holding Korn/Ferry (KFY) is one of the biggest fundamental mispricings we see at the moment.

That said, even though markets are fairly priced and we think certain areas offer bargains, systemic risks are increasing as price-agnostic trading in the likes of quant and indexing has now been augmented by trading from Reddit platforms such as WallStreetBets and Robinhood traders looking to make a big score in the market. We’re still playing it cool, and nothing should be surprising to our readers. We called almost every step of the way in 2020, and extreme and irrational levels of volatility are the next chapter in the book Value Trap. The markets won’t get completely out of whack for years yet, however, and we hope Value Trap, in raising awareness of the pitfalls of the ways of indexing and quant investors, will make it so the path to financial destruction will never materialize.

We’re available for any questions.

Most Shorted Stocks, short interest as a % of float: GME, FIZZ, DDS, MAC, BBBY, LGND, AMCX, SRG, GOGO, SPWR, AXDX

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Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, Valuentum Buying Index ratings, Dividend Cushion ratios, fair value estimates and ranges, dividend reports and more. Not a member? Subscribe today. The first 14 days are free.

Brian Nelson owns the SPY, SCHG, DIA, QQQ, VOT, and IWM. Some of the other companies written about in this article may be included in Valuentum's simulated newsletter portfolios. Contact Valuentum for more information about its editorial policies.

[covid19updater]

COVID19 Updates: 08/25/2021

Spain:  Houston, we have a problem. Deaths in Madrid by age. Summer 2021 vs summer 2020, as of 24 Aug. At least, we seem to have a vaxx problem: More deaths and growing especially in the older/vaccinated groups and residences.

Philippines:  St. Luke's Medical Center on Wednesday announces  that its COVID-19 wards and critical care units are at full capacity.

RUMINT (Arkansas):  My husband who is a physician in Arkansas has been giving me the smallest fraction of grim information. Y'all need to be careful just walking around.

New York:  ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) — Gov. Kathy Hochul acknowledges nearly 12,000 more COVID-19 fatalities in NY than publicized by Cuomo administration.

US:  Latest @AmerAcadPeds report shows an alarming 48% rise in Covid-19 cases in kids —  180,175 from August 12 to 9 (up from 121,427 the previous week). Kids were 22.4% of weekly reported total cases. There were 24 new pediatric deaths.

China:  Golf-LPGA Tour cancels Shanghai tournament due to COVID-19 LINK

Sweden:  Sweden Prime minister Loefven resigns "we have failed with our special-way with Corona"

Tennessee:  16 y.o. Azorean Tatum, vaccinated high school student & football player at Westwood High School in Memphis #Tennessee died from COVID August 22, 2021. Mom believes he caught the virus at school. #SoulsLostToCovid LINK

Japan:  Two more athletes have tested positive for Covid-19 in the Paralympic village, with officials awaiting information to confirm if a cluster of infection has broken out, after a first case was discovered on Tuesday;

China:  Meanwhile, despite serious concerns over the efficacy of its domestically-made jabs, authorities in at least 12 Chinese cities have warned those who refuse to be vaccinated could be punished if found responsible for spreading the virus;

Israel:  COVID: What we know about the new Delta strain could lock Israel down LINK

World:  Should Long Covid be recognised as a disability? LINK

Australia:  NSW COVID IMPORTANT WARNING for some of the thousands of people in NSW now with COVID. If you are at home, and become breathless and dizzy .. call an ambulance. That's the warning from a Lung Specialist at a media conf now on @abcnews channel.

US:  BREAKING: More than 25,000 Americans in ICU with COVID-19, highest since pandemic began

US:  U.S. COVID update: Number in ICU at highest level since pandemic began - New cases: 149,090 - Average: 154,281 (-3,957) - In hospital: 98,674 (+2,931) - In ICU: 25,034 (+1,343) - New deaths: 1,343

Maryland:  “All members of the governor's staff are fully vaccinated,..” It appears we have another cluster of “extremely rare” breakthrough infections as 4 have tested positive.

Illinois:  Only one ICU bed available in southern IL region LINK

US:  Delta Air Lines calling the Delta Variant the B.1.617.2 Variant in their statement is one of the funniest corporate decisions ever.

UK:  NHS bracing for perfect storm winter disaster amid "Mass Exodus" of burnt-out staff. LINK

Maine:  Maine sees sharp increase in people hospitalized with COVID-19 LINK

Oregon:  JUST IN  In Oregon, people will now have to wear masks outdoor even if vaccinated, Governor says

World:  Officials, experts warn against using COVID-19 vaccine in kids under 12 LINK

US:  Covid: 85-90% of the U.S. must be vaccinated ‘if we’re going to get past this,’ warns Dr. Peter Hotez LINK

Texas:  Right now, the state is averaging 1,797 new "lab-confirmed COVID" hospital admissions each day, a new record high. The record for a single day is 1,907, set last Thursday.

Ohio:  Ohio reports highest daily COVID cases, hospitalizations, ICU admissions in months LINK

Mississippi:  For the first time since the pandemic began, Mississippi confirmed more than 100 new COVID-19 deaths in a single day's report. Today's 111 deaths reported surpasses the prior record of 98 deaths on Jan. 12, 2021. LINK

California:  After signs of leveling, COVID-19 hospitalizations in L.A. County tick back up LINK

Texas:  ‘Healthy’ 19-year-old got COVID. Now he faces ‘long-term ventilation,’ Texas family says LINK

US:  As Covid-19 cases spike US orders for monoclonal antibodies up 1200% LINK

World:  31 vaccinated choir members went on tour in Italy - 22 contracted corona

US:  Long Covid limbo: some US patients wait months for diagnosis and treatment LINK

UK:  Our Wednesday summary of English hospital activity sees all metrics increasing over the last week. Admissions have increased by (a slightly slower) 7% over the last week, and are now broadly back to the level seen in mid-July at the peak of the Euro-fuelled surge.

World:  JUST IN - Data on the benefits and safety of a #COVID19 vaccine booster shot is "inconclusive," says WHO Director General Tedros.

Florida:  In Florida, crematories are so overwhelmed with the deceased that bodies are “stacked to the ceiling”. There’s an influx of bodies like never seen before—worse than last year. Crematoriums in Orange County are begging for Florida to “supply some refrigeration”. @WFLA #COVID19

South Africa:  South Africa Reports Emergence Of New Worrisome SARS-CoV-2 Variant C.1.2 That Has Enhanced Transmissibility And Immune Evasion! - Thailand Medical News LINK

US:  BREAKING: More than 100,000 Americans are hospitalized with COVID-19

Iowa:  “Dept of Public Health has classified Covid-19 as endemic. Marion County PH (Iowa) Director Kim Dorn says: ‘It is endemic in the popn. What that means is it’s just expected to be there, kind of like the flu during flu season.. it’s not going to go away.”

Iowa:  Iowa currently ranks 3rd in the nation for %-positive Covid-19 tests at nearly 37%

World:  Study finds recent or current COVID-19 infection linked to increased risk of dangerous blood clots during surgery LINK

UK:  A very worrying trend in the UK Since the beginning of July, all-cause deaths have risen 12% over 2020 and 9% over the 2015-2019 average: 59,877 (2021) 53,435 (2020) 54,716 (2015-19 average) And the gap is widening. For the newest available week (Aug. 13) it was 16% over 2020.  This gap is not due to Covid deaths - though those are now also higher than last summer. Mortality is VERY seasonally predictable (see how close the 2015-19 average is to the 2020 figure). Something bad is going on.

US:  Biden Administration Plans Covid-19 Vaccine Boosters At Six Months Instead Of Eight LINK

Iowa:  7112 new COVID+ Iowans. This should not be confused with positive tests. That number is higher = 7619 positive tests. Some of the tests coming back positive are Iowans who had COVID already earlier in the pandemic.

Florida:  Florida’s COVID-19 resurgence: State reports 26,203 new cases, highest daily total of the pandemic

US:  Formal U.S. approval of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine will make it nearly impossible to successfully challenge mandates by employers, according to legal experts LINK

California: Los Angeles:  6,500 students in isolation/quarantine during first week of school LINK

Kentucky: Gov Andy Beshear:  Today I am sad to announce 65 deaths and 4,849 newly reported cases of COVID-19, the third highest report since the pandemic began. Of those cases, 1,518 are kids. Our positivity rate is the highest it’s ever been at 13.16% and hospitalizations have hit another record.

Colorado:  “An Unvaccinated Fitness Coach Thought COVID Antibodies [from his previous #Covid19 infection] Would Protect Him [against a second #Covid19 infection]. He Almost Died.” LINK

Texas:  NEW from @texastribune: COVID hospitalizations in Texas are approaching 14,000 — and an all-time high

Florida:  Tampa is treating tap water with bleach instead of liquid oxygen because hospitals need the chemical to keep ventilated COVID patients alive. They're also asking customers to "eliminate non-essential water uses." LINK

US:  #BREAKING: Disney Cruise Line will require proof of vaccination against COVID-19 for passengers sailing to The Bahamas next month LINK

Michigan: "There's lot of good guys out there ready to do bad things soon" -- an anti-masker goes ballistic at a Board of Commissioners meeting in Ottawa County, Michigan    LINK

World:  Largest safety study ever of Pfizer covid19 vaccine by @RanBalicer @mlipsitch et al on @NEJM LINK

Israel:  Wow. New Israeli preprint shows natural immunity to #SARSCoV2 is FAR superior to the artificial kind - vaccinated people were 13x as likely to be infected and 27x to have symptomatic infections as a matched cohort that was previously infected. And this is with Delta dominant.

Australia:  Two major hospitals in Sydney's west, the epicentre of Australia's coronavirus outbreak, set up emergency outdoor tents on Thursday to help deal with an increase in patients as the city grapples with its worst flare-up in the pandemic. Sydney, Australia's largest city, is struggling to stamp out an outbreak of the highly infectious Delta variant, with daily infections hitting record levels even after two months under a hard lockdown. LINK

World:  Human clinical trials begun for promising, llama-derived COVID antibodies LINK

New Zealand:  New Zealand reports 68 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since April 2020.  NEW ZEALAND PM ARDERN: WE DON'T INTEND TO USE LOCKDOWNS FOREVER.

Australia:  Australia reports more than 1,000 new local Covid cases in 24 hours for the first time during the pandemic, as a Delta variant outbreak surges in Sydney

Texas:  Texas now within 300 patients of its all-time level of COVID hospitalizations. It has 306 ICU beds available in the entire state, per the Texas dashboard. 12 of the state's hospital regions have 5 or fewer ICU beds available; some have zero.

Israel:  Israel's grim COVID data suggests vaccines alone won't stop pandemic LINK

UK:  Covid in Scotland: Circuit-breaker lockdown among options to curb surge in cases LINK

US:  U.S. COVID update: Number in hospital reaches 100,000 - New cases: 186,782 - Average: 155,995 (+1,714) - In hospital: 100,592 (+1,918) - In ICU: 25,268 (+234) - New deaths: 1,340

California:  California Assembly members not vaccinated against COVID-19 should be suspended, lawmaker says LINK

Japan:  NEW  Japan halts use of 1.63 million Moderna vaccine doses over contamination — vaccine have been found to contain foreign materials. - The Japan Times

[matthewboyd93-blog]

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[orbemnews]

Terrifying scope of Capitol assault turning into clearer as Washington locks down for Biden's inauguration Days after the assault, at the same time as safety reinforcements arrive, some lawmakers inform CNN they now worry for his or her security. Whereas some Republicans argued President Donald Trump’s unprecedented second impeachment will solely inflame divisions, federal officers warned that extremists, after seeing the outcomes of final week’s assault on the US Capitol, at the moment are probably extra emboldened to hold out assaults on the January 20 inauguration and all through 2021. An inside FBI bulletin disseminated to regulation enforcement this week warned that “armed protests” are being deliberate in any respect 50 state capitols and in Washington within the days main as much as Biden’s swearing in. Federal regulation enforcement businesses issued pressing bulletins calling for help securing the nation’s capital, which now bristles with street blocks and metal boundaries to wall off the “Folks’s Home” and can host as many as 25,000 Nationwide Guard — a stronger navy footprint than the US has in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria mixed. By Friday, the FBI had obtained 140,000 digital ideas relating to the assault, together with images and video, federal officers had opened 275 prison investigations, charged roughly 98 people, and brought 100 people into custody. As senior administration leaders who would usually take the lead remained silent for days — together with the heads of the Justice Division, the Division of Homeland Safety and the President himself — federal officers launched the most in depth counterterrorism probe since September 11, 2001, and continued planning to fortify Washington. “Our posture is aggressive. It will keep that means by the inauguration,” FBI Director Christopher Wray mentioned at a Thursday briefing on inauguration safety. He added that the company was monitoring “in depth” on-line chatter about additional potential armed protests and issued a warning to the lads and lady who wreaked havoc on the Capitol. “We all know who you’re, for those who’re on the market,” Wray mentioned, “and FBI brokers are coming to search out you.” The home terrorists struck at a time when the US authorities is confronting the worst recognized cyberattack by a international adversary in its historical past, with Russia suspected of penetrating tons of of companies and quite a few federal businesses. Their bloodshed and destruction come as Covid-19 claims document day by day dying tolls and a jobs disaster is brewing, with practically 1 million folks submitting for unemployment advantages for the primary time final week. The riot, fueled by Trump’s lies about his definitive election loss, uncovered the attain of baseless conspiracy theories which have radicalized Individuals to the purpose that they laid siege to their very own Capitol. The occasions of that day elevate questions on intelligence failures, the navy’s torpid response as panicked lawmakers pleaded by phone for assist, and regulation enforcement’s potential blind spots or willful ignorance concerning the risks posed by white supremacists and right-wing nativists. These teams fashioned a flamable combine with the anti-Semites and QAnon conspiracists rampaging on January 6 to create an existential disaster for the Republican Celebration, which faces the selection of remaining in thrall to Trump and his extra poisonous supporters or breaking away. It creates a problem for the bigger nation as effectively, in accordance with CNN senior political analyst Ron Brownstein, who mentioned the trajectory of Trump’s “white nationalist extremism has been very clear” for the final 4 years, as are the potential prices to US safety whether it is left unchecked. “President Trump has offered an unlimited quantity of oxygen to this very harmful ideology,” Brownstein advised Jake Tapper on Thursday. “And except everybody concerned, the Justice Division, regulation enforcement, Congress, may be very critical about imposing penalties and taking the menace severely, this might turn out to be a gradual drumbeat by the Biden presidency.” “The query is, can we extra broadly ship a sign that claims we aren’t going to tolerate and look the opposite means as this metastasizes,” Brownstein mentioned. Ideologically motivated violence Already, hundreds of armed pro-Trump extremists are plotting to encompass the US Capitol forward of Biden’s inauguration, in accordance with a lawmaker briefed by safety officers Monday. A joint US authorities intelligence bulletin mentioned the January 6 assault, meant to disrupt the certification of Biden’s victory, could have given extremists of differing ideological stripes a strategy to join. The bulletin warned that the riot “may be very probably a part of an ongoing pattern wherein (extremists) exploit lawful protests, rallies, and demonstrations, and different gatherings to hold out ideologically motivated violence and prison exercise.” A number of protection officers have advised CNN that the Nationwide Guard and regulation enforcement count on explosives like pipe bombs and Molotov cocktails for use in any coming unrest. They’re assuming perpetrators will include excessive “aggression,” mentioned one senior protection official, who added, “their intentions are very critical.” Pipe bombs that would have performed critical harm had been planted outdoors the Republican and Democratic occasion headquarters in Washington final week however did not go off. The experience behind the bombs and the convenience with which the raucous crowd appeared to mill concerning the Capitol complicated with little resistance raised considerations individuals had insider assist and navy experience. Not less than two US Capitol Law enforcement officials had been suspended and at the least 10 extra are below investigation for allegedly enjoying some kind of position, CNN reported. Michael Sherwin, the performing US legal professional in Washington, DC, confirmed Friday that “we’re seeing indications that regulation enforcement officers, each former and present, possibly who’ve been off responsibility, collaborating on this riot exercise.” “We do not care what your career is, who you’re, who you’re affiliated with, in case you are conducting or engaged in prison exercise, we are going to cost you and you’ll be arrested,” Sherwin mentioned. Army members A part of that hunt is for “a number of” folks presumably concerned within the killing of Capitol Police Officer Brian Sicknick, in accordance with two regulation enforcement officers. On Friday, Steven D’Antuono of the FBI’s Washington Area Workplace mentioned his investigators are “making progress” on the investigation and are “anybody and everybody” who could also be concerned. He didn’t give specifics on the scope of the investigation. Within the days after the assault, court docket information and information studies additionally confirmed that present and former US navy members participated within the riot. The information triggered unprecedented statements from the leaders of main safety businesses who felt the necessity to remind their women and men their loyalty is to the Structure. On Tuesday, the America’s most senior navy leaders condemned the violent invasion and reminded service members of their obligation to assist and defend the Structure and reject extremism. The Protection Division has noticed a rise in white supremacist ideology amongst active-duty service members and veterans, a senior protection official advised CNN. The following day, US Secret Service Director James Murray despatched company workers a message urging them to recollect their mission and stay skilled through the upcoming inauguration. “We’re anticipated to behave in a non-partisan method,” his memo mentioned. Video pictures of a Capitol Police officer carrying a MAGA hat through the invasion and of one other taking selfies with rioters left lawmakers deeply shaken. In accordance with the Wall Avenue Journal, the officer seen carrying the trademark purple cap put it on as a part of a ruse to rescue greater than a dozen trapped law enforcement officials through the riot. The officer has been suspended and an investigation is underway. “There have been these acts of heroism, however subsequent to that, there have been additionally assaults of betrayal,” Democratic Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez of New York mentioned Tuesday on Instagram Stay. “And to run within the nation’s Capitol and never know if an officer is there that can assist you or to hurt you can be fairly traumatizing.” “I didn’t know if I used to be going to make it to the tip of that day alive,” Ocasio-Cortez mentioned. “It’s not an exaggeration to say that many, many members of the Home had been practically assassinated.” Some members are asking for bulletproof vests, contemplating getting their very own safety and taking different steps, akin to altering their routes to work, lawmakers advised CNN. In the meantime, some Republicans expressed outrage at metallic detectors put in on the entrance to the Home chamber. Many Home lawmakers are contemplating one other appalling risk: that the mob bought help from a few of their colleagues. Thirty-one members of Congress despatched a letter to the performing Home Sergeant at Arms, performing Senate Sergeant at Arms, and the performing chief of the US Capitol Police asking them to analyze “uncommon” and “regarding” excursions they noticed and reported to the Sergeant at Arms on January 5. “Lots of the Members who signed this letter, together with these of us who’ve served within the navy and are educated to acknowledge suspicious exercise, in addition to numerous members of our workers, witnessed a particularly excessive variety of outdoors teams within the complicated on Tuesday, January 5,” the letter states. The teams of six to eight, who wore MAGA attire, in accordance with Democratic Rep. Mary Homosexual Scanlon of Pennsylvania, “may solely have gained entry to the Capitol Advanced from a Member of Congress or a member of their workers,” the letter mentioned. Coordination “I form of assumed it have to be a brand new member who did not know the foundations or one thing,” Scanlon of Pennsylvania, one of many co-signers, advised CNN. “There have been individuals who had been roaming round within the halls, apparently below the steerage of congressional workers” at a time when excursions have been canceled because of Covid. Not less than one right-wing conspiracist mentioned he coordinated the rally the place Trump spoke earlier than the riot with three Home Republicans: Reps. Paul Gosar and Andy Biggs of Arizona, and Rep. Mo Brooks of Alabama, who spoke earlier than the President took the stage and urged the gang to “begin taking down names and kicking ass.” Brooks, Gosar and several other different Home GOP lawmakers are going through criticism for his or her incendiary language within the hours, days and weeks earlier than the siege. Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado, who’s affiliated with the QAnon motion and recurrently spreads right-wing conspiracy theories, has additionally come below scrutiny for tweeting about Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s whereabouts because the assault was unfolding. On Friday, Pelosi introduced retired Lt. Gen. Russel Honoré, a former vice director with the Joint Chiefs of workers, would lead a evaluate of the Capitol’s safety. She added that, “if, the truth is, it’s discovered that members of Congress had been accomplices to this riot, in the event that they aided and abetted the crime, there could should be actions taken past the Congress when it comes to prosecution for that.” Later that day, when requested if they’re investigating allegations that Capitol Police and lawmakers had been concerned within the riot, D’Antuono of the FBI’s Washington Area Workplace mentioned they may “go away no stone unturned” and are ” every bit of the puzzle.” Sherwin, the performing US legal professional for Washington, DC, advised reporters earlier within the week that “we’re vital felony instances tied to sedition and conspiracy.” Proof of planning Proof uncovered to date, together with weapons and ways seen on surveillance video, suggests a stage of planning, a federal regulation enforcement official mentioned. And court docket filings are providing stunning new particulars. One memo in a submitting Friday seeks to increase the detention of Jacob Anthony Chansley, the face-painted QAnon believer who rallied folks contained in the Capitol carrying a horned headdress and carrying a six-foot spear and a bullhorn. Prosecutors describe those that took over the Capitol as “insurrectionists” and provide new particulars about Chansley’s position within the violent siege final week, together with that Chansley left a notice on the dais the place Vice President Pence had stood that morning saying, “It is solely a matter of time, justice is coming.” Chansley later advised the FBI he didn’t imply the notice as a menace however mentioned the vp was a “child-trafficking traitor.” Earlier than he was arrested, Chansley additionally advised the FBI he needed to return to Washington for the inauguration to protest. In a separate case, prosecutors in Texas alleged {that a} retired Air Power reservist who carried plastic zip tie-like restraints on the Senate flooring could have supposed to restrain lawmakers. It was one of many many chilling particulars to emerge as investigators tracked down among the most recognizable faces from the riot. Authorities apprehended the person in broadly circulated images carrying a Accomplice flag inside Capitol Hill, one other who had worn a “Camp Auschwitz” sweatshirt and the Olympic gold medalist swimmer Klete Keller. Federal officers additionally charged Peter Stager, a burly bearded man, with beating a DC police officer with a flagpole that had an American flag on it. “Everyone in there’s a treasonous traitor,” Stager mentioned in a video obtained by the FBI. “Demise is the one treatment for what’s in that constructing.” A couple of arrests counsel the obvious murderous intent of some within the crowd. One man from Alabama faces 17 prison counts, largely for possession of a number of weapons, together with a shotgun, a rifle, three pistols and 11 Molotov cocktails, in addition to ammunition and shotgun shells with out registration, in accordance with an indictment. After residing in his truck in DC for a few week, the person parked it a few block from the Capitol on January 6, in accordance with court docket paperwork. Police began looking the truck after recognizing a firearm deal with and located the weapons, in addition to a stun gun, a number of machetes, a crossbow; a number of large-capacity ammunition-feeding units; and tons of of rounds of ammunition, in accordance with a memorandum that prosecutors filed January 12 in assist of his detention. Additionally within the truck: the handwritten notice with Indiana Rep. Andre Carson’s identify and an added commentary that he’s “one among two Muslims in Home of Reps.” The second man is alleged to have pushed from Colorado to Washington, DC, a day earlier than Trump’s rally with greater than 2,500 rounds of ammunition and an assault rifle. He’s mentioned to have texted acquaintances that he needed to shoot or run over Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi and shoot DC Mayor Muriel Bowser, in accordance with court docket information. “If I had a extra regarding threats case come earlier than me, I do not keep in mind it,” Justice of the Peace Decide Michael Harvey of the DC District Courtroom mentioned Thursday. Some lawmakers’ experiences made them fear that the rioters had a stage of cautious preparation that belies the narrative of a protest that wheeled uncontrolled. Rep. Ayanna Pressley, a Massachusetts Democrat, advised CNN that somebody eliminated panic buttons put in all through her workplace that had been recurrently examined and maintained. An investigation is underway, mentioned Pressley, who mentioned the invention was “definitely unnerving.” Carson, whose identify was on the notice discovered within the automobile stuffed with weaponry and ammunition, is amongst a rising record of lawmakers vital of regulation enforcement’s dealing with of the insurgency. “This can be very disturbing to study from press studies that I used to be one among a number of people recognized in an inventory of ‘good guys’ and ‘dangerous guys’ focused for assaults,” Carson mentioned in an announcement offered to CNN. “As a former regulation enforcement officer, it’s particularly disappointing to see the failure of regulation enforcement officers, together with the U.S. Capitol Police, to inform people like myself that we had been focused and in danger from the indicted terrorist and his co-conspirators.” Failures Investigators will probably be asking how federal authorities missed so many purple flags, why they had been so underprepared and gradual to react. The FBI and the Division of Homeland Safety did not problem menace assessments concerning the potential of violence on the US Capitol forward of final week’s lethal assault, in accordance with a supply conversant in the matter and a senior DHS official. Sometimes, the FBI and DHS will produce a joint menace evaluation for high-profile occasions and ship it to regulation enforcement officers and related stakeholders. However no such report was compiled by both company for the January 6 certification of Biden’s victory, a controversial occasion for the President’s followers. The Washington Put up reported Friday that three days earlier than the assault, an inside Capitol Police intelligence report warned that offended Trump supporters may assault “Congress itself.” The 12-page report describes a state of affairs eerily just like the one which unfolded, with the President’s enraged backers attempting to cease Biden’s certification and overturn the election outcomes. A day earlier than the chaos erupted, an FBI outpost in Virginia issued an inside warning that extremists had been coming to Washington ready to commit violence. The Put up additionally reported that dozens of individuals on a terrorist watch record got here to Washington for the January 6 occasions. The vast majority of them had been suspected white supremacists with monitor information so disturbing they had been placed on the nationwide Terrorist Screening Database as potential safety dangers. 4 federal businesses introduced Friday they’re opening investigations into their very own roles on January 6. The Division of Protection, Division of Homeland Safety, Division of Justice and the Inside Division will all study their preparations for the occasions in Washington that day which will have performed an element in permitting rioters to breach the Capitol. These businesses and others at the moment are getting ready for rioters to descend on the Capitol once more. The Secret Service is taking the lead on Biden’s inauguration safety planning. The Nationwide Mall will probably be closed to most of the people on Inauguration Day, in accordance with an official conversant in discussions. There will probably be no massive screens, no bathrooms and the general public won’t be able to get right down to the Mall the place historically hundreds collect to look at the brand new president be sworn in, the official mentioned. The President-elect and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris are nonetheless anticipated to take their oaths of workplace on the West Entrance of the US Capitol throughout a considerably scaled-down occasion. Biden mentioned this week that his group had been receiving briefings within the wake of the violence and that he was “not afraid of taking the oath outdoors.” CNN’s Katelyn Polantz, Christina Carrega, David Shortell, Marshall Cohen, Nicky Robertson, Ellie Kaufman, Geneva Sands, Zachary Cohen, Oren Liebermann, Barbara Starr, Jamie Crawford, Jamie Gangel, Jake Tapper, Alex Marquardt, Jeff Zeleny, Kate Sullivan, Ryan Nobles, Annie Grayer, and Brian Todd contributed to this report. Supply hyperlink #attack #Bidens #Capitol #clearer #inauguration #locks #Politics #scope #Terrifying #TerrifyingscopeofCapitolattackuncoveredasWashingtonlocksdownforBiden'sinauguration-CNNPolitics #Washington

[rightsinexile]

Haiti, TPS, and racial bias

This short piece was written by Jeffrey S. Chase, immigration lawyer in New York City, former Immigration Judge, senior legal advisor at the Board of Immigration Appeals, and volunteer staff attorney at Human Rights First. The article was first published in M. Chase’s blog, here re-published with his permission.

This morning, the trial began in Saget v. Trump, before District Judge William Kuntz in the Eastern District of New York. As your Brooklyn observer, I attended the opening hours of what is likely to be a two or three day trial.

The basis for the case is the Trump administration’s termination of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Haitians who have been present in the US since January 12, 2011, and remain unable to return due to conditions in that country following a massive earthquake in 2010, a 2016 hurricane, and a major cholera epidemic. 59,000 Haitians in the US are presently in TPS status, a number too large for the Haitian government to presently absorb if returned en masse.

TPS is not asylum, and offers no permanent status in this country. It was created by Congress in 1990 to afford blanket protection to nationals of countries to which return is currently untenable for a variety of reasons, including armed conflict, natural disaster, rampant disease, or the inability of the country to absorb the mass repatriation of its nationals. Such designation is granted in intervals of 6 to 18 months, and is reviewed by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) at least 60 days before the end of each designated period. The law only allows TPS status to be terminated where such review finds that the conditions for designation no longer exist in the country; otherwise, the period of TPS is to be extended. In the case of Haiti, after being designated for TPS in early 2010, such designation was extended in 18-month increments continually until the coming of the Trump Administration in 2017.

DHS, within its subcomponent, USCIS, has a Country Conditions Unit. I know that unit’s director, LeRoy Potts, and met with him and some of his senior staff when I oversaw the Executive Office for Immigration Review’s (EOIR) Country Conditions Database during my time at the Board of Immigration Appeals (BIA). They are knowledgeable, fair-minded, and in my experience, issued accurate reports free of political influence. The Country Conditions Unit is generally consulted in TPS decisions. As it had in the past, the Unit again drafted a report finding serious problems in Haiti that would call for an extension of TPS.

However, as the Plaintiffs’ counsel noted in his opening statement, Robert T. Law, previously director of the vehemently anti-immigration lobby group ironically known by the acronym FAIR, who under the Trump administration was made a senior policy advisor to United States Citizen and Immigration Services (USCIS) - which is mind-boggling on its own - decided that the Country Condition Unit’s memo was “overwhelmingly weighted for extension which I do not think is the conclusion we are looking for.” According to petitioner’s counsel, Law edited the document (with the blessing of the USCIS chief policy strategist, Kathy Nuebel Kovarik) in 35 minutes, without further research. According to the opening statement, the only research requested by the administration was for evidence that Haitians in the US had criminal records or received public assistance, a clear attempt to discredit a nationality using racial stereotypes. Plaintiff’s counsel stated that the USCIS Country Conditions Unit characterized DHS’s final version of the report used to justify its termination of TPS for Haiti as “complete fiction.”

The Plaintiffs called as their first witness Ellie Happel, an expert on country conditions in Haiti and resident of that country from 2011 to 2017, who took apart the DHS memo sentence by sentence. For example, Happel explained the meaninglessness of DHS’s claim that 98 percent of internal displacement camps (“IDPs”) in Haiti have been closed. Happel stated that the majority who left the camps did so due to actual or threatened forced eviction, and many did not return to durable housing. When one settlement, Canaan, was decertified as an IDP camp, it statistically eliminated 50,000 people from the list of those internally displaced. However, those 50,000 people continue to live on the site of the former camp, a windswept, previously uninhabited land far from government services.

Happel cited a report (also referenced in the USCIS report) that a minimum of 500,000 homes would have to be constructed to meet the housing needs of the Haitian population. Happel also testified in convincing detail to continued food insecurity, political instability, an economy marred by a 2 billion dollar debt to Venezuela caused by misappropriation or embezzlement of funds by government officials, and a continued susceptibility to cholera following one of the worst epidemics of the disease in recent history.

Why would DHS’s leadership go to such lengths to fabricate a fictitious report to justify returning 59,000 Haitians to such conditions before it was advisable to do so? The plaintiffs pointed to the answer in the statements of President Trump himself, made a few months earlier to members of Congress, in which he referenced predominantly black nations as “shithole countries” (the presiding judge insisted on the use of the unedited quote), questioned “why do we need more Haitians? (whom he previously claimed “all have AIDS”); and stated his preference for immigrants from places such as Norway. The government’s attorney somehow managed to keep a straight face when claiming in response that DHS’s acting Secretary had reached the decision to terminate independent of Trump’s opinions.

Sadly, Haitians have suffered a long history of unfair treatment under our country’s immigration laws. In his excellent 1998 law review article “Race, the Immigration Laws, and Domestic Race Relations: A ‘Magic Mirror’ Into the Heart of Darkness,” Prof. Kevin R. Johnson wrote “No US policy approached...the government’s extraordinary treatment of Black persons fleeing the political violence in Haiti.” When the US Supreme Court in its 1993 decision in Sale v. Haitian Centers Council, Inc., upheld the policy initiated by President George H.W. Bush, and surprisingly continued under President Clinton, of repatriating intercepted Haitians without first screening the returnees to see if they qualified for refugee status, Justice Brennan argued in dissent that the Haitian refugees “demand only that the United States, land of refugees and guardian of freedom, cease forcibly driving them back to detention, abuse, and death. We should not close our ears to it.”

Sadly, 25 years later, our nation’s most openly racist president continues to advocate for policies of extraordinary cruelty towards Haitians. And seemingly without embarrassment, many of his underlings are happy to go to extreme lengths to carry out such policies, the admirable exception being the USCIS Country Conditions Unit.

It was heartwarming to see the large team of lawyers, paralegals, and expert witnesses united in Judge Kuntz’s courtroom to continue to fight against such cruelty. Among those in attendance were Ira Kurzban, one of the plaintiff’s lawyers, and Michael Posner, founder and former director of Human Rights First, both of whom were early defenders of Haitian rights in the 1980s. To see them working alongside a younger generation of attorneys and experts, such as Happel, the director of NYU Law School’s Haiti Project, and Florida attorney Kevin Gregg reminded this aging attorney that the struggle for immigrants’ rights will be passed on to most capable hearts and hands.

[riskhedge]

The Fate of Tech Giants Depends on This Sector—and It’s One of the Best Investments Today

In 2017, The Economist ran a story about how data has surpassed oil as the world’s most valuable resource.

Makes sense, right?

The 20th century’s most powerful companies got rich selling oil. John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil was the first ever $1 billion company.

Many of today’s super-firms have gotten rich collecting and selling personal data. Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG), and Facebook (FB) all earn a BIG chunk of their profits from leveraging and selling users’ data.

These are the third, fourth, and sixth biggest publicly traded companies on earth.

This year Google will earn over $100 billion from selling online ads. It has mastered the business of collecting data and using it to figure out who you are and what you’re likely to buy.

But here’s the catch.

In the Data Business, Trust Is Everything

If you want to see how a loss of trust can ruin a company, look no further than Facebook.

Since going public in 2012, Facebook stock has shot up 400%. For years, it was a Wall Street darling.

In April, the love affair ended with a thud.

Facebook admitted that the personal data of 87 million users had been sold to political consulting firm Cambridge Analytica. The worst part is that it’s been done without users’ explicit permission.

This data breach potentially helped Donald Trump win the presidency.

Facebook stock plunged 17% on the day of the news. It marked the biggest single-day wipeout of shareholder value in US stock market history.

Things only got worse from there.

In the past four months, Facebook stock has plunged 35%—erasing $221 billion in wealth. Take a look at this chart of Facebook stock. It is ugly.

The company’s reputation is in shambles. A recent study by Fortune found Facebook is the least trustworthy of all major tech companies when it comes to safeguarding data.

Now Everything Facebook Does Is Met with Skepticism

For example, have you heard about its new video-calling device—The Portal?

You probably have not, because the major media have practically ignored it.

A Wall Street Journal review summed it up best: “I couldn’t bring myself to set up Facebook’s camera screen in my family’s home. Can you blame me when you look at the last 16 months?”

Facebook’s data breach has been a total disaster.

98% of its revenue comes from selling online ads. Facebook can only do it effectively if people continue to give their personal data. When nobody trusts Facebook, the company is dead in the water.

Facebook’s user growth numbers in the past two quarters have also been terrible. For the past two years, it has added an average of 46 million new users every quarter. Today it’s half that.

How Much Would Mark Zuckerberg Have Paid to Avoid This Catastrophe? 

Facebook has hired the equivalent of a small city to shore up its cybersecurity. In just six months, its cybersecurity headcount has doubled to 20,000 workers!

But it’s too little too late. Once you lose the trust of your customers, almost nothing will get it back.

As such, no cost is too high when it comes to protecting your customers’ data.

This Is Why I Love the Booming Cybersecurity Business

Smart companies are spending billions to upgrade their digital defenses. Cybersecurity spending will hit $114 billion this year, according to top IT research firm Gartner. Demand for cyber services is set to explode by 70% in the next five years.

The best thing about cybersecurity is that there’s always demand for it. Hackers are constantly finding new ways to exploit vulnerable systems. So companies must pour out big money to get ahead of them.

Every company—big, small, domestic, global—needs reliable cybersecurity today. You can’t run a business without it.

For this reason, growth in cybersecurity is one of the top disruptive trends that will define the next decade.

It is not surprising that the largest cybersecurity ETF (HACK) has beaten the S&P 500 close to 5x in the past year. See here:

How Do We Make Money from It?

My favorite stock in cybersecurity is Fortinet (FTNT)—here’s why.

My contacts in the cybersecurity industry tell me many companies suffer from one key problem. They use many different cybersecurity products, which leave holes in their defenses that hackers can exploit.

A report from Cisco (CSCO) found that 46% of firms use more than 11 different cybersecurity products.

Fortinet’s Security Fabric platform solves this.

It combines dozens of cyber solutions into a single product. You get network, email, web, cloud, mobile security, and much more… all in one.

Gartner just named Fortinet as a cybersecurity market leader for the ninth time in a row. The company’s revenue has exploded 135% in the past four years. And its stock is up 140% in the past two years.

Have You Missed Out on Amazon, Google, and Netflix-level Profits of 500%+? Here's Your Second Chance

If you're looking for stocks coiled for big gains, grab my recent special report The Great Disruptors: 3 Breakthrough Stocks Set to Double Your Money.

In it, you'll find in-depth research and exact stock tickers along with our buy prices and target prices, so you can invest confidently today.

These stocks will hand you 100% gains as they disrupt whole industries.

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[mikemortgage]

Divers recover jet flight recorder from Indonesia seafloor

JAKARTA, Indonesia — Divers in Indonesia recovered one of the crashed Lion Air jet’s flight recorders from the seafloor on Thursday, a crucial development in the investigation into what caused the 2-month-old plane to plunge into the ocean earlier this week, killing 189 people. Relatives, meanwhile, buried the first victim to be identified and prayed at her flower-covered grave.

TV showed footage of two divers after they surfaced, swimming to an inflatable vessel and placing the bright orange device into a large container that was transferred to a search-and-rescue ship.

“I was desperate because the current below was strong but I am confident of the tools given to me,” said navy 1st Sgt. Hendra, who uses a single name. After narrowing the possible location, “I started digging and cleaning the debris until I finally found an orange object,” he told TV, standing on the deck of a ship next to his diving mates.

The Boeing 737 MAX 8 plane crashed early Monday just minutes after takeoff from the Indonesian capital, Jakarta. It was the worst airline disaster in Indonesia in more than two decades and renewed concerns about safety in its fast-growing aviation industry, which was recently removed from European Union and U.S. blacklists.

Navy Col. Monang Sitompul told local TV an object believed to be part of the aircraft’s fuselage was also seen on the seafloor.

Minutes after the device was taken out of the sea, Bambang Irawan, an investigator with the transport safety committee, said it was the flight data recorder.

But at a later news conference, another investigator, Ony Soeryo Wibowo, said they still haven’t determined if it’s the flight data or cockpit voice recorder. It was displayed inside a clear container submerged in water to prevent damage from rapidly drying out.

“Their forms are similar,” he said. Speaking about the overall investigation’s progress, Wibowo said, “We have collected data and did find some problems, but it must be investigated further.”

The flight data recorder is expected to provide investigators with detailed information about the flight such as altitude, airspeed and heading. The voice recorder also provides valuable information — not only the cockpit crew’s voices but engine sounds, instrumentation warnings and other audio that investigators can interpret. The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board says sophisticated computer and audio equipment is used to extract and translate the data into an understandable format.

The recorder was recovered from a depth of about 30 metres (98 feet), some 500 metres (1,640 feet) from where the plane lost contact, said search and rescue agency head Muhammad Syaugi.

“The currents below the sea are still strong which makes it difficult for divers, but they persistently faced it,” he said.

Relatives of 24-year-old Jannatun Cintya Dewi, whose remains were identified Wednesday, carried her body in a coffin covered in green cloth along a road in an East Java district to the burial place, followed by dozens of people in a solemn procession.

Her father and others knelt by the grave, which was sprinkled with red, white and yellow flowers, and prayed.

Other families face a longer wait to bury loved ones. Police medical experts say results from DNA tests needed for identification in many cases will take 4-8 days and remains are still being found.

U.S. National Transportation Safety Board investigators including from Boeing visited the Jakarta port on Thursday and picked through debris collected from the sea including pieces of aircraft and passenger belongings.

Data from flight-tracking sites show the plane had erratic speed and altitude in the early minutes of a flight on Sunday and on its fatal flight Monday. Safety experts caution, however, that the data must be checked for accuracy against the flight data recorder.

Several passengers on the Sunday flight from Bali to Jakarta have recounted problems that included a long-delayed takeoff for an engine check and terrifying descents in the first 10 minutes in the air.

Lion Air has ordered 50 of the MAX 8 planes and one of its subsidiary airlines was the first to operate the new generation jet last year.

Transport Minister Budi Karya Sumadi said inspections of Boeing MAX 8 planes operated by Lion Air and national carrier Garuda have found no problems but the checks are continuing.

He said the Directorate-General of Air Transportation has asked Lion Air to remove four key officials from duty — its director of maintenance and engineering, quality control manager, flight maintenance manager and release manager — so they can assist the investigation. He said their aircraft maintenance engineer licenses have been suspended.

Investigators say a preliminary report into the accident could be released within a month but complete findings will take several months more.

The Lion Air crash is the worst airline disaster in Indonesia since 1997, when 234 people died on a Garuda flight near Medan. In December 2014, an AirAsia flight from Surabaya to Singapore plunged into the sea, killing all 162 on board.

Indonesian airlines were barred in 2007 from flying to Europe because of safety concerns, though several were allowed to resume services in the following decade. The ban was completely lifted in June. The U.S. lifted a decadelong ban in 2016.

Lion Air, a discount carrier, is one of Indonesia’s youngest and biggest airlines, flying to dozens of domestic and international destinations. It has been expanding aggressively in Southeast Asia, a fast-growing region of more than 600 million people.

from Financial Post https://ift.tt/2zlbs0T via IFTTT Blogger Mortgage Tumblr Mortgage Evernote Mortgage Wordpress Mortgage href="https://www.diigo.com/user/gelsi11">Diigo Mortgage

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LION AIR CRASH: Diver’s recover jet’s data recorder

LION AIR CRASH: Diver’s recover jet’s data recorder LION AIR CRASH: Diver’s recover jet’s data recorder https://ift.tt/eA8V8J

JAKARTA, Indonesia — Divers recovered the crashed Lion Air jet’s flight data recorder from the seafloor on Thursday, a crucial development in the investigation into what caused the 2-month-old plane to plunge into Indonesian seas earlier this week, killing 189 people. Relatives, meanwhile, buried the first victim to be identified and prayed at her flower-covered grave.

TV showed footage of two divers after they surfaced, swimming to an inflatable vessel and placing the bright orange device into a large container that was transferred to a search-and-rescue ship.

“I was desperate because the current below was strong but I am confident of the tools given to me,” said navy 1st Sgt. Hendra, who uses a single name. After narrowing the possible location, “I started digging and cleaning the debris until I finally found an orange object,” he told TV, standing on the deck of a ship next to his diving mate.

Chilling phone video shows passengers boarding fatal Lion Air flight

Possible seabed position of crashed Lion Air jet located

All 189 likely dead in Indonesia Lion Air flight crash

The Boeing 737 MAX 8 plane crashed early Monday just minutes after takeoff from the Indonesian capital Jakarta. It was the worst airline disaster in Indonesia in more than two decades and renewed concerns about safety in its fast-growing aviation industry, which was recently removed from European Union and U.S. blacklists.

Navy Col. Monang Sitompul told local TV an object believed to be the aircraft’s fuselage was also seen on the seafloor.

The device recovered by divers is the flight data recorder and the search for the cockpit voice recorder continues, said Bambang Irawan, an investigator with the National Transport Safety Commission.

“We will process the data contained in this FDR as part of the investigation process to find out the cause of the crash,” he said. “We cannot say how long it takes to process data in a black box, but of course we will try as soon as possible.”

The flight data recorder was recovered from a depth of 30 metres (98 feet), about 500 metres (1,640 feet) northwest from where the plane lost contact, said search and rescue agency head Muhammad Syaugi.

“The currents below the sea are still strong which make it difficult for divers, but they persistently face it,” he said.

Relatives of 24-year-old Jannatun Cintya Dewi, whose remains were identified Wednesday, carried her in a coffin covered in green cloth along a road in an East Java district to the burial place, followed by a solemn procession of dozens.

//<![CDATA[ ( function() { pnLoadVideo( "videos", "z5B9kiMVGSU", "pn_video_632015", "", "", {"is_mobile":""} ); } )(); //]]>

Her father and others knelt by the grave, which was sprinkled with red and yellow flowers, and prayed.

Other families face a longer wait to bury loved ones. Police medical experts say results from DNA tests needed for identification in many cases will take 4-8 days.

U.S. investigators on Thursday visited the Jakarta port and picked through debris collected from the sea including pieces of aircraft and passenger belongings.

Data from flight-tracking sites show the plane had erratic speed and altitude in the early minutes of a flight on Sunday and on its fatal flight Monday. Safety experts caution, however, that the data must be checked for accuracy against the flight data recorder.

Several passengers on the Sunday flight from Bali to Jakarta have recounted problems that included a long-delayed takeoff for an engine check and terrifying descents in the first 10 minutes in the air.

Lion Air has ordered 50 of the MAX 8 planes and one of its subsidiary airlines was the first to operate the new generation jet last year.

Transport Minister Budi Karya Sumadi said inspections of Boeing MAX 8 planes operated by Lion Air and national carrier Garuda have found no problems but the examination was continuing.

He said the Directorate-General of Air Transportation has asked Lion Air to remove four key officials from duty — its director of maintenance and engineering, quality control manager, flight maintenance manager and release manager — so they can assist the investigation. He said their aircraft maintenance engineer licenses have been suspended.

Investigators say a preliminary report into the accident could be released within a month but complete findings will take several months more.

The Lion Air crash is the worst airline disaster in Indonesia since 1997, when 234 people died on a Garuda flight near Medan. In December 2014, an AirAsia flight from Surabaya to Singapore plunged into the sea, killing all 162 on board.

Indonesian airlines were barred in 2007 from flying to Europe because of safety concerns, though several were allowed to resume services in the following decade. The ban was completely lifted in June. The U.S. lifted a decadelong ban in 2016.

Lion Air, a discount carrier, is one of Indonesia’s youngest and biggest airlines, flying to dozens of domestic and international destinations. It has been expanding aggressively in Southeast Asia, a fast-growing region of more than 600 million people.

Click for update news Bangla news https://ift.tt/2RuVPeQ world news

[investmart007]

MATARAM, Indonesia | The Latest: Pope prays for dead and consolation for grieving

New Post has been published on https://is.gd/oEpdLa

MATARAM, Indonesia | The Latest: Pope prays for dead and consolation for grieving

MATARAM, Indonesia  — The Latest on an earthquake that struck Indonesia’s Lombok island (all times local): 7 p.m.

Pope Francis has expressed great sadness over the loss of life and destruction of property caused by Indonesia’s quakes. In a telegram Monday, Francis also offered his “heartfelt solidarity” for those affected.

The message said he was praying for the souls of the dead and for “the consolation of all who grieve the loss of their loved ones.”

Francis also invoked “divine blessings of consolation and strength” upon Indonesia’s people.

Francis offered encouragement to rescuers and others assisting victims.

An earthquake Sunday killed at least 98 people, including some who perished inside buildings that had been weakened by an earlier July 29 quake on the tourist island of Lombok. Rescuers haven’t reached all of the devastated areas and there are fears the death toll could climb. ___

5:10 p.m. National Disaster Mitigation Agency spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho says the death toll from the Lombok earthquake has risen to 98 from the previously announced 91.

Officials have been saying the number of deaths would increase as rescuers reach cut-off areas in north Lombok.

The ruins of a mosque that collapsed in Lading-Lading village while people prayed inside was being pulled apart by a backhoe in search of victims.

Photos and video from the disaster agency showed Sunday’s night quake had reduced the mosque to a mound of rubble. ___

2 p.m. An Indonesian disaster agency official says efforts to find victims in the rubble of a mosque collapsed by Sunday’s earthquake in north Lombok has been hampered by the lack of heavy equipment.

National Disaster Mitigation Agency spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho said at a news conference Monday afternoon the current toll of 91 dead will “definitely increase,” citing the mosque as an example of the devastation still being accounted for.

He said reports that seven Indonesian tourists were killed on Gili Trawangan island near Lombok have not been verified yet.

Authorities are trying to evacuate several thousand locals and tourists from Trawangan and two other popular vacation islands. ___

11:55 a.m. An Australian man who manages a resort on the Indonesian island of Lombok says he and his family made a 3-kilometer (2-mile) dash up a mountain to escape a potential tsunami after a strong earthquake shook the island.

Evan Burns, who manages a resort on Lombok, says his house is now uninhabitable, having sustained severe structural damage from the magnitude 7.0 quake that hit the island Sunday evening, killing at least 91 people.

Authorities issued a tsunami warning after the quake hit, but lifted it a short while later.

Burns said Monday that that the force of the quake “was so severe, it threw us out of bed, and the walls immediately started cracking.”

After dashing up the mountain, Burns, his wife and their 2-year-old son waited in the dark with about 200 other people from their village for the danger to pass. He has since returned home.

Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop said Australian officials were making their way to Lombok to help Aussies caught up in the disaster. ___

11:15 a.m. A British tourist on Gili Trawangan island near Lombok says thousands of people, locals and tourists, are trying to get off Trawangan, one of three popular Indonesian vacation islands off the northwest of Lombok, after spending a night outdoors.

Saffron Amis from Brighton says thousands of people fled to a hill near the hostel where she was staying after Sunday evening’s quake, fearing a tsunami.

She says “there was a lot of screaming and crying particularly from the locals. We spoke to a lot of them and they were panicking about their family in Lombok.”

There’s widespread building damage and a somber mood on the island a day after the quake, Amis said, adding she feels lucky to be unharmed.

Authorities say the death toll now at 91 is likely to rise. ___

10:20 a.m. Indonesia’s National Disaster Mitigation Agency says the death toll from the earthquake on Lombok has risen to 91 and could rise further as rescuers still haven’t reached some of the worst affected areas in the north of the island.

Spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho said there is “massive” damage in north Lombok from the quake that struck early Sunday evening. He said thousands of houses and other buildings have been damaged and most of the deaths counted so far were caused by collapsing houses.

President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has ordered cabinet ministers and military and police chiefs to accelerate the disaster relief effort. ___

9:35 a.m. Authorities say foreign and Indonesian tourists are being evacuated from popular vacation islands off the northwest of Lombok following Sunday’s powerful earthquake that killed at least 82 people.

National Disaster Mitigation Agency spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho said there were no fatalities among tourists on the three islands Gili Trawangan, Gili Meno and Gili Air.

He said three ships had evacuated 1,000 tourists so far. Four agencies including the military and the national search and rescue agency are involved in the evacuation. ___

7 a.m. Thousands of homes were damaged by a powerful earthquake Sunday on the Indonesian tourist island of Lombok.

National Disaster Mitigation Agency spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho said the death toll had risen to 82 with hundreds injured. Most of the deaths were caused by collapsing houses.

The magnitude 7.0 earthquake early Sunday evening struck in the northern part of Lombok and was also felt on Bali, where the airport terminal had ceiling tiles shaken loose. ___

6 a.m. Australia’s home affairs minister has tweeted that he and his delegation have been safely evacuated in darkness from a Lombok hotel where they have been staying during a regional security conference.

Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton told Fairfax Media that he was on the hotel’s 12th floor when the quake struck. He says the quake “was powerful enough to put us on the floor” and cut power.

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull told Nine Network television he will call Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo on Monday “to offer all the Australian assistance that can be made available.”

He says there are no reports of injured Australians. ___

4:55 a.m. Model Chrissy Teigen has shared her shock and worry in real-time during a powerful and deadly earthquake in Indonesia with her social media followers.

The model, along with singer-husband John Legend and their two children, felt the shaking while on vacation in neighboring Bali on Sunday.

“Bali. Trembling. So long,” Teigen tweeted to her 10.6 million followers.

The magnitude 7.0 quake has killed at least 39 people on the tourist island of Lombok, about 50 miles (80.5 kilometers) from Bali. A brief tsunami warning went into effect but was later lifted.

The aftershocks unnerved Teigen, too. “im either still trembling or these little quakes won’t stop IM TRYING TO BE NORMAL HERE,” she wrote. ___

1:20 a.m. The head of the disaster management agency in Indonesia’s West Nusa Tenggara province, Muhammad Rum, says the death toll from an earthquake that hit the tourist island of Lombok has risen to 39. The magnitude 7.0 quake centered on northern Lombok struck early Sunday evening and was also felt strongly in neighboring Bali, where it damaged buildings.

Officials initially reported that at least three people had been killed. It was the second quake to hit Lombok in a week. A magnitude 6.4 quake on July 29 killed 16 people. ___

9:15 p.m. An Indonesian official says at least three people have been killed after a strong earthquake struck the popular tourist island of Lombok.

Najmul Akhyar, district chief of North Lombok, told MetroTV that there was an electrical blackout so he was unable to assess the entire situation, but that at least three people had been killed. Authorities have lifted a tsunami warning that was issued after the quake struck early Sunday evening.

The U.S. Geological Survey says the quake had a magnitude of 7.0 and a depth of 10.5 kilometers (6 miles).

A magnitude 6.4 quake hit Lombok, which is just east of Bali, on July 29, killing 16 people. ___

8:55 p.m. Indonesian authorities have lifted a tsunami warning that was issued after a strong earthquake struck the popular tourist island of Lombok.

Dwikorita Karnawati, head of Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency, told MetroTV that the tsunami warning has ended.

She said the warning was for the lowest level of tsunami, and that small waves just 15 centimeters (6 inches) high were detected in three villages.

The U.S. Geological Survey says the quake Sunday evening had a magnitude of 7.0 and its epicenter was about 2 kilometers (1 mile) east-southeast of Loloan, with a depth of 10.5 kilometers (6 miles). A magnitude 6.4 quake hit Lombok, which is just east of Bali, on July 29, killing 16 people. ___

7:40 p.m. A strong earthquake has struck Indonesia’s popular tourist island of Lombok, one week after another quake in the same area killed more than a dozen people.

The National Disaster Mitigation Agency says the latest quake, which struck early Sunday evening, has the potential to trigger a tsunami.

The U.S. Geological Survey says the quake had a magnitude of 7.0 and its epicenter was about 2 kilometers (1 mile) east-southeast of Loloan, with a depth of 10.5 kilometers (6 miles).

A magnitude 6.4 quake hit Lombok, which is just east of Bali, on July 29, killing 16 people.

Like Bali, Lombok is known for pristine beaches and mountains. Hotels and other buildings in both locations are not allowed to exceed the height of coconut trees.

By  Associated Press

[citizentruth-blog]

Gunas, The Ethnic Group Cornered By Climate Change - ENVIRONMENT

New Post has been published on https://citizentruth.org/gunas-the-ethnic-group-cornered-by-climate-change/

Gunas, The Ethnic Group Cornered By Climate Change

(Centro de Periodismo Investigativo, by Mary Triny Zea) The natives of Cartí Sugdup island, in the archipelago of Guna Yala — known worldwide as San Blas — on the northeast end of the province of Panama, are ready, between fears and hope, to move to the mainland and become the first Latin American indigenous settlement displaced by climate change, according to non-governmental organization Displacement Solutions. In 2017, the Panamanian state resumed its relocation project, which began in 2010.

Some 1,450 gunas will leave their traditional huts with white sugarcane walls and straw roofs, located on one of the largest islands of the archipelago, to inaugurate, in 2019, some 300, 41-square-meter, two-bedroom homes, with areas for the tribe’s cultural meetings, whose total cost reaches $10 million, according to the government project.

This would unleash the exodus of one of the 36 inhabited islands, of a total of 365 of this indigenous region whose population totals 33,109 inhabitants, distributed among coastal lands and islets.

This move means for many of the “kunas,” as they were called until 2011, the return to their roots. Historically, they come from the mainland, from the Colombian regions of Urabá, Antioquia and Caldas. Now they are called gunas because in their alphabet the letter “K” does not exist, a request that emerged from the general congresses of the Bilingual Cultural Education Program.

The accelerated rise in the sea levels — which has already erased some of the islands surrounded by white sand and clear waters that make up this archipelago paradise — coupled with the overcrowding in which they live — because of their beliefs to bring into the world as many children as “God would send them” — forced them to make this decision that still generates debate in 40 other island communities.

A witness to that is a neighbor to the island and mathematics professor, Diomedes Fábrega, who recalls there used to be an island called “Noromulo” that disappeared 10 years ago. He says the increase in temperatures makes his teaching difficult, and that floods in Cartí Sugdup — given the rise in sea levels — used to take place between December and February, but as of five years ago they have been recorded since August.

The “guna” culture, their spirituality and traditions, are at stake with the move, warns Dalys Morris, a “guna” teacher who belongs to the relocation committee, so they are self-managing  the preparations. She says that they have not been guided by the State but that the support has come from international organizations, an opinion shared by islander Vicente González, who maintained that they have no contact with the Panamanian authorities to address the issue of climate change, not even from the Ministry of the Environment, despite the existence of the Climate Change Unit, created in 2006.

The relocation of the gunas is not just about a physical or geospatial issue. It also implies a cultural change. “We plan to offer different seminars on life on the mainland, where we will address, for example, the handling of garbage to avoid diseases,” said Morris. Although they are not completely convinced about the proposal to live in these small houses and they worry about how they will pay for them, they are aware that they have no other alternative, she said.

The Caribbean Sea, where Guna Yala is located, rises between three and six millimeters a year, which supposes an increase of up to 60 centimeters in 100 years, and in the worst-case scenario, between two and five meters, explained scientist Steven Paton, who is the director of the physical monitoring program of the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in Panama. This forces the natives to leave the islands, because they are already flooding.

During last December’s first few days, the strong winds coincided with the high tide and during two days, the sea covered all of the Guna Yala islands. Water rushed into their homes, indigenous activist Blas López said. “The people were very afraid; they had not seen this before. They feel that the sea is increasingly rising” and the barriers that they build with corals and trunks were not enough because the water reached their ankles, explained López.

Despite explanations and scientific projections, the gunas are divided between the grandparents who refuse to leave the sea and the young people — the majority — who feel the imminent threat.

Arcadio Castillo, a guna biologist and fish ichthyologist, describes the differences in Guna Yala’s marine life: “in my childhood, there were plentiful fish and lobsters; now you have to paddle a kilometer outside [the islands] and there are fewer fish. “This happens because of the overfishing of parrotfish, which eat the algae and control their growth so they don’t harm the corals.

Castillo, who is of medium height — like the rest of the gunas — confirms that flooding in the islands is nothing new, although between 1970 and 1980, during the trade winds or rainy season, the water that flooded his house did not reach his ankles. Today, the event is more severe and goes above that part of his body. He believes this situation has worsened because the gunas are eliminating the reefs.

Looking to expand their islands, the gunas remove the “elk horn” and “finger” corals  located near the coast or in shallow waters that may have up to one-and-a-half meters of ramifications, and coupled with the seagrass, they make fences, where they throw garbage and dead corals, which are added to gravel and sand. They try to gain land from the sea. But some of these rudimentary fillings are destroyed by the waves, Castillo said.

The bleaching and death of corals, which serve as a natural protection barrier, is 98% due to high water temperatures, according to studies carried out between 1983 and 2003 in various parts of the world. “Since then, the water has been hotter,” said Thomas Goreau, president of the Global Coral Reef Alliance.

But, for gunas like 77-year old José Davis, spokesman for traditional authority, the concept of climate change means nothing: “it does not have as much strength for the Kuna.” However, he welcomes the idea of the relocation, claiming it means returning to their “origins as a mountain people that 120 years ago populated the archipelago.”

For Davis, to occupy the 22 hectares in the future community in Llanos de Cartí, a wooded area that was cleared for resettlement, means “increasing agricultural production and having more space to improve the quality of life. We want to move because of the overcrowding.”

Llanos de Cartí, the continental area where they will relocate to and that is part of the region’s collective lands, is a silent witness to the millions of misspent dollars using this ethnic group as an excuse. There is a school and a half-finished health center there, supposedly for the new life of the gunas on the mainland.

The construction of the health center abandoned by Omega Engineering in 2014 is being investigated for possible acts of corruption during the presidency of Ricardo Martinelli (2009-2014,) while the school with dormitories faces administrative problems, despite being 90% complete.

For López, the relocation implies more than the delivery of the houses. “It’s not just building the houses, you need the teaching factor on climate change.” “There is a lack of awareness about the rising sea level,” in addition to coordinating with the authorities a national plan, in case of natural disasters, he said.

A dozen gunas and environmental organizations coincide on this point. Edmundo López, president of the Research and Development Institute of Guna Yala, affirms that it has been 10 years since the Ministry of Environment (MA) “has manifested itself in his community despite having an office in the region and related legislation.

Five months ago, La Prensa asked for an interview and sent requests for information to the Climate Change Unit of the MA to address the issue, but there was no response.

Although Panama is a country with extensive coastlines — 1,287 kilometers in the Caribbean and 1,700 kilometers in the Pacific — their annual loss due to the rise in sea levels is unknown, scientists agree. The MA assesses coastal vulnerability and analyzes eight vulnerable zones of the country, although it did not know this indicator.

The Environmental Advocacy Center, an environmental law organization, believes the Climate Change Unit is only a entity “on paper” to comply with international requirements, as it lacks concrete actions and indicators in this regard, said its biologist, Isaías Ramos. For his part, Ricardo Wong, director of the Promar Foundation, said leadership is required from the ministry and more education for the population to adapt to this new climate reality.

Although the Guna Yala archipelago is the most susceptible area due to climate change in Panama, it is not the only place. The Caribbean provinces of Bocas del Toro and Colón have also been affected. The first had its Laguna de Chiriquí bay forests destroyed five years ago by seawater floods, and in the second — for the past seven years — hundreds of homes have flooded, there are collapsed infrastructures, and the mangrove was destroyed due to the port and commercial expansion of the Colón Free Zone (ZLC, for its initials in Spanish.)

 The district of Colón in that province runs the risk of sinking below sea level, given that at present it only has 10% of its mangroves. Smithsonian researcher Stanley Heckadon, warns that in 100 years, several residential complexes will disappear. He recalled that between 1920 and 1980 the sea rose 10 centimeters in the village of Cristóbal, where one of the most important ports in the country and the ZLC are located.

This story is part of the ISLANDS ADRIFT series, resulting of the work of a dozen Caribbean journalists led by the Center for Investigative Journalism (CPI) in Puerto Rico. The investigations were possible in part with the support of Ford Foundation, Para la Naturaleza, Miranda Foundation, Angel Ramos Foundation and Open Society Foundations.

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India Cuts Royalties to Monsanto, is There a Link Between Monsanto & Indian Farmer Suicide?

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The NHL's worst contracts by team for the 2017-18 season

Some of these contracts are worse than others, but none of them looks great for the teams now.

Finding talent is one of the most important jobs for any NHL general manager. Another is to make sure those skilled players are signed to reasonable contracts that can be built upon with other reasonable contracts.

The NHL has a hard salary cap of $75 million for the 2017-18 season, which means teams don’t have a ton of flexibility in terms of how to build their rosters. Oversized contracts can sink a potentially good team by forcing it to trade other players to become cap compliant. Bargain deals can be the life blood of a contender.

So over the next few days, we’re going to look at the best and worst contracts on the books for each team in the NHL. To start on Friday, we’re going to look at the deals that GMs are probably regretting. For some of them, these could be the mistakes that eventually lead to firings.

Being an NHL GM is a hard gig, and negotiating long-term contracts with players is one of the toughest challenges. You’re committing to people for years on multimillion dollar deals. There are a lot of variables with a person that can lead to disappointing results.

So with the offseason starting to wind down and just a few prominent restricted free agents left, here’s a look at the worst contract on each NHL team entering the 2017-18 season. Terms listed in this post are the remaining terms on each deal, not the overall terms. On Monday, we’ll dig into the best contracts.

Anaheim Ducks

Defenseman Kevin Bieksa: One year, $4 million cap hit

The first team on the list is a close call because the Ducks don’t have an obvious bad long-term contract. Corey Perry is starting to decline and may not be worth $8.625 million anymore, but he’s just a year removed from a 33-goal season. Sami Vatanen’s deal, while a bit heavy, only lasts another three seasons. So we’ll go with Bieksa, who’s definitely not worth $4 million anymore.

Arizona Coyotes

Forward Dave Bolland: Two years, $5.5 million cap hit

Bolland may never play in the NHL again due to back and ankle injuries, but he’s still on the Coyotes’ books for two more seasons. The good news is that Arizona can place Bolland on long-term injured reserve, and his contract is insured so it only costs the team $1.1 million per year, not $5.5 million. Still, that deal is just dead weight at this point.

Boston Bruins

Forward David Backes: Four years, $6 million cap hit

Backes has seen his points-per-game rate drop from 0.77 to 0.73 to 0.57 to 0.51 over the past four seasons. Now 33 years old, he’s still set to be paid like a top-six forward through the 2020-21 season despite the signs of aging. Backes isn’t a bad player at this point, but that $6 million per year price tag will only get harder to swallow.

Buffalo Sabres

Forward Matt Moulson: Two years, $5 million cap hit

The Sabres have their fair share of questionable contracts, but we’ll go with Moulson, who signed his five-year deal with Buffalo after a five-year stretch where he averaged 30 goals per 82 games. In the three seasons since then? He’s averaged 12 goals per 82 games. Not exactly worth the $5 million per year.

Photo by Derek Leung/Getty Images

Calgary Flames

Forward Troy Brouwer: Three years, $4.5 million cap hit

The Flames wanted Brouwer to give them size, physicality, and playoff experience along with some offensive production. Instead, he finished his first year with a career-low 25 points and disastrous possession statistics (44.4 percent even strength Corsi) despite getting chances in an offensive role.

Carolina Hurricanes

Forward Marcus Kruger: Two years, $3.08 million cap hit

It’s telling that the Hurricanes have managed their cap situation well when Kruger is the worst contract on their books. The team willingly gave up a late draft pick to take on Kruger’s deal this summer, so even his contract was considered a net positive. Still, $3.08 million for a No. 4 center is a bit rich, which is why Chicago and Vegas moved on.

Chicago Blackhawks

Defenseman Brent Seabrook: Seven years, $6.875 million cap hit

Seabrook’s deal is a good example of how loyalty in a Cup winner can burn you. He got max term, a high AAV, and a full no-movement clause for the first six years of the deal, even though he was still a year away from free agency. Now the 32-year-old is overpaid on a deal that doesn’t expire until he’s 38. The Marian Hossa contract is a problem, too, but the Seabrook deal is what could sink the Hawks’ Cup window.

Colorado Avalanche

Forward Carl Soderberg: Three years, $4.75 million cap hit

The Avalanche wanted a defensive-minded center to help stabilize their lineup, so they signed Soderberg away from Boston in 2015 free agency. He was pretty good in his first year with 51 points in 82 games, but the wheels totally came off last season as his production and playing time took big dips.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Forward Brandon Dubinsky: Four years, $5.85 million cap hit

Dubinsky still plays a key role with the Blue Jackets, but it’s hard to believe he’s worth one of the highest cap hits on the team. The 31-year-old is coming off one of the worst seasons of his career in terms of point production and driving possession, and he’s got four years left on his deal. On a team largely devoid of bad contracts after trading David Clarkson, Dubinsky’s overpay qualifies as the worst.

Dallas Stars

Goaltender Kari Lehtonen: One year, $5.9 million cap hit

The Stars tried aggressively to improve their goaltending situation by acquiring Ben Bishop, but the vestiges of their failed tandem remain. Lehtonen has one year at a $5.9 million cap hit left, and Antti Niemi’s buyout puts $1.5 million on Dallas’ books each of the next two seasons. With a .904 save percentage over the past three seasons, Lehtonen doesn’t deserve to be an NHL starter. Now he’ll be an extremely expensive backup.

Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Detroit Red Wings

Forward Justin Abdelkader: Six years, $4.25 million cap hit

Where do we even start here? The Red Wings had several bad contracts to choose from in Abdelkader, Johan Franzen, Darren Helm, Danny DeKeyser, Jonathan Ericsson, and Jimmy Howard. Detroit’s cap management is a total disaster right now. But we’ll go with Abdelkader, who’s got six years left on his deal coming off a 21-point season.

Edmonton Oilers

Defenseman Kris Russell: Four years, $4 million cap hit

One of the NHL’s most divisive players, Russell is either wildly overrated or not given his proper due, depending on who you’re talking to. His underlying numbers signal it’s more the former than the latter, which makes a $4 million cap hit a bit rich for someone who is more of a third-pairing defenseman than a proper top-four option. Also, the Oilers gave him a no-movement clause, which seems wholly unnecessary.

Florida Panthers

Goaltender Roberto Luongo: Five years, $4.533 million cap hit

There’s one main reason that Luongo is the choice here, and that’s his age. He’s already 38 years old despite having another five seasons left on his contract, which begs the question of how much longer he can be a No. 1 goalie. Luongo’s contract was front-loaded, so he’s owed just $7 million over the final four seasons, but it’s also a cap recapture contract with penalties attached if he retires. While those penalties would hit the Canucks harder than the Panthers, it makes his contract a potential problem down the road for both teams if he can’t cut it anymore.

Los Angeles Kings

Forward Dustin Brown: Five years, $5.875 million cap hit

One of the poster boys for bad contracts at this point, Brown signed his deal in 2013 after a six-year run that included a Stanley Cup and 309 points in 450 games. He’d win another Cup with L.A. in 2014, but since signing that deal, he’s recorded just 118 points in 323 regular season games.

Minnesota Wild

Forward Zach Parise: Eight years, $7.538 million cap hit

The Wild surely knew they were taking a huge gamble on the backend of Parise’s 13-year, $98 million contract, but presumably they were hoping that decline wouldn’t come for a while. Last season, Parise recorded the worst offensive numbers since his rookie season even though Minnesota finished second in the league in scoring. He’s still useful, but it may be a long eight years for the Wild.

Montreal Canadiens

Defenseman Karl Alzner: Five years, $4.625 million cap hit

One of the most questionable deals of the 2017 offseason, Alzner got paid by Montreal after the Capitals willingly let him walk as a free agent. He has pedigree as the No. 5 overall pick from the 2007 NHL draft, and he’s been extremely durable, not missing a single game over the past seven seasons. But he’s not much of a scorer or a possession driver, so it begs the question of why the Habs thought he’d be worth nearly $5 million annually through his age-33 season.

Nashville Predators

Forward Nick Bonino: Four years, $4.1 million cap hit

Another deal signed this offseason, the Predators clearly liked what they saw from Bonino in the 2017 Stanley Cup Final. He’s been brought in to help replace Mike Fisher, who announced his retirement Thursday. Bonino is a solid, two-way center with playoff experience, but he’s also topped 40 points in a season just once. For a team that’s masterfully managed its cap, Bonino is a debatable decision.

New Jersey Devils

Defenseman Ben Lovejoy: Two years, $2.667 million cap hit

The Devils only have one contract (Cory Schneider) in place that’s longer than four seasons, so they don’t have much money tied up in bad deals. Ryane Clowe has been an anchor, but he’ll go on LTIR and be off the books next summer. So we’ll go with Lovejoy, who was so bad last season that even a $2.667 million cap hit seems like a bit much.

New York Islanders

Forward Cal Clutterbuck: Five years, $3.5 million cap hit

The Islanders signed a pair of brutal deals over the past year with Andrew Ladd and Clutterbuck. It wasn’t easy to choose between them — Ladd is the better player, but his contract is both longer and more expensive. Still, the choice is Clutterbuck, who inexplicably got a lucrative five-year extension from New York even though he hasn’t scored 25 points in a season since 2011-12. It’s a wild overpay for a bottom-six winger.

Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

New York Rangers

Defenseman Marc Staal: Four years, $5.7 million cap hit

Staal will have a higher cap hit than Duncan Keith next season so he can be on the Rangers’ third defensive pairing. The team already cut ties with Dan Girardi this summer, and it seems like just a matter of time before the hammer drops on Staal one way or another, too.

Ottawa Senators

Defenseman Dion Phaneuf: Four years, $7 million cap hit

The Senators provide a tricky choice for worst contract between Phaneuf and Bobby Ryan, who both have cap hits near $7 million for the next few seasons. Ryan was terrible in the regular season but put up 15 points in 19 playoff games as he showed flashes of his old self. So we’ll go with Phaneuf, who is two years older and also coming off an underwhelming season.

Philadelphia Flyers

Defenseman Andrew MacDonald: Three years, $5 million cap hit

I didn’t even need to look at the Flyers’ cap sheet to pick out this one. MacDonald’s contract has become a running joke in hockey circles at this point.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Forward Carl Hagelin: Two years, $4 million cap hit

Hagelin brings a nice dose of speed to the Penguins lineup, but $4 million is a lot of cap space for a winger coming off a 22-point season. He also failed to follow up his great 2016 postseason effort, in which he had 16 points in 24 games, by recording just two points in 15 games during the 2017 run.

San Jose Sharks

Defenseman Justin Braun: Three years, $3.8 million cap hit

The Sharks have a bunch of useful players on multiyear deals who could be candidates here, but the most obvious two are Braun and winger Mikkel Boedker. Braun just didn’t cut it in a top-four role last season, as the Sharks’ even strength Corsi dropped from 53.5 percent to 46.5 percent with him on the ice. He’s been better in the past, but entering his 30s, it’s a worrisome sign.

St. Louis Blues

Defenseman Jay Bouwmeester: Two years, $5.4 million cap hit

Bouwmeester was one of the better defensemen in the NHL just a few years ago, but he’s a fraction of that player at this point. Over the past three seasons, he’s put up just 47 points with a Corsi Relative of minus-3.2 percent or worse every year. The Blues have kept leaning on him in a major role, but he’s increasingly struggled to fill it effectively.

Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forward Ryan Callahan: Three years, $5.8 million cap hit

Hip injuries have derailed the career of Callahan, who appeared in just 18 games last season. He’s working to get back to strong playing condition, but in the meantime, the Lightning will have to continue paying him like a top-six forward. As baffling as Dan Girardi’s two-year, $6 million contract is, Callahan’s $5.8 million cap hit over the next three seasons will hurt even more if he can’t rebound.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Forward Nathan Horton: Three years, $5.3 million cap hit

The Maple Leafs can get around Horton’s $5.3 million cap hit by placing him on long-term injured reserve each season, but they’re still on the hook for nearly $16 million over the next three years because his contract is uninsured. That’s a sunk cost Toronto can afford as one of the NHL’s big spenders, but it’s still a brutal contract that’s not making things any easier for the Leafs.

Vancouver Canucks

Forward Loui Eriksson: Five years, $6 million cap hit

The Eriksson deal seems like a good example of the risk associated with signing a free agent who’s past age 30 to a long-term deal after a big season. Eriksson promptly took a big step back in his first year with Vancouver, with his point total dropping from 63 to 24. He still generated shots and drove possession, so all is not lost. But the Canucks are paying a lot of money over the next five years to a 32-year-old who hopefully bounces back.

Vegas Golden Knights

Forward David Clarkson: Three years, $5.25 million cap hit

So many options to choose from, but the Golden Knights smartly focused on bad contracts with just one year remaining in the expansion draft while scooping up picks and prospects. One of the exceptions is Clarkson, who will spend the next three years on LTIR after a back injury effectively ended his career. The Knights got a first-round pick from Columbus for taking on the contract, so it’s likely worth it, but Clarkson will make their accounting more challenging in the short term.

Washington Capitals

Defenseman Brooks Orpik: Two years, $5.5 million

There’s a good chance that T.J. Oshie’s eight-year, $46 million deal ends up being a mess on the back end, but for now, Orpik making $5.5 million to be a third-pairing defender is Washington’s worst contract. In three seasons with the Capitals, Orpik has scored three goals in 198 games, which almost seems hard to do.

Winnipeg Jets

Defenseman Dmitry Kulikov: Three years, $4.33 million cap hit

The Jets wanted more depth on defense, which makes sense. What makes less sense is giving a three-year deal with a $4.33 million cap hit to Kulikov even though he was outright terrible last season. Buffalo got outscored, 34-16, with him on the ice during 5-on-5 play, and his 45 percent Corsi and five points in 47 games aren’t much better. This is a sizable commitment for a player whose track record doesn’t warrant it.